The countdown to the ‘once in 100 years’ Budget has started!
As mentioned in my previous post that markets look exhausted and the correction is just around the corner.
Nifty at the beginning of the week declined up to 14222.8 only to recover smartly to hit a new high at 14753.55 but gave up almost all the gains by the end of the week to settle at 14371.9 or 0.43% lower than the previous week.
The chart doesn’t look pretty to me! Those two back to back narrow range candles near the upper range of the trend channel could spell trouble for the bulls going forward. If we follow through below 14222.8, we might vey well test 13800 or so, to begin with.
Incidentally, around this time last year, a similar structure (red circle) was seen and we very well remember what followed thereon.
I am not prophesying any gloom or doom but the structure definitely calls for caution.
The Union Budget on Feb 1, 2021 could be the catalyst!
Let’s see how that plays out over the next few weeks!
As for the Hybrid Model Portfolio, the performance remains intact!
Here’s the real-time snapshot of the actual 10 stock model portfolio established based on the DYR Hybrid Strategy. The Hybrid Strategy is the combination of Dual Momentum Monthly Rotational Strategy and Mean Reversion Long/Short strategies applied together.
The equity at the end of the week stands at 2000721.61 (A+B) which is up around 1.4% over the last week. Overall, the returns stand strong since the inception at 44.98%.
I still hold a little over 19% cash in the portfolio to fend off any kind of surprises. I might even increase the cash further at the time of rebalance. The negative cash balance that you see is because of a few open mean-reversion long positions which I would close out before the weekend!
Have a great week ahead & Happy Republic Day to all!