Market Outlook:
It looks like the bulls are losing steam!
Despite the struggle, the bulls have been unsuccessful in sustaining at higher levels.
At the beginning of the week, Nifty slowly started recovering up to 15336.3 but came crashing down up to 14919.9 on Friday before settling at 15030.95 or 0.62% up! Nifty 500 also ended up 0.44% at 12593.9 almost exactly where it opened.
Almost all the sectoral indices underperformed Nifty except for IT, Financials & Small & Mid-cap Indices.
What are the charts saying?
Well, the charts don’t look too encouraging to me!
Here’re my observations…
- Nifty has failed to close above the previous highest weekly close at 15163.3.
- Nifty has formed a DOJI near the resistance which shows weakness in the markets.
- For the past few weeks, the upper shadows or wicks of the candles are longer which indicates that there’s a supply at higher levels. I have circled the previous such candlestick formation and you can see what followed thereafter.
- I have marked on the chart, the possible scenarios emerging…
- If this is just a normal correction or consolidation in an ongoing bullish trend, we should not go below 14433.7 on a weekly basis. If we are able to maintain this level, then the chances of the bullish trend to continue up to approximately 16000 or thereabouts are higher.
- If we’re below 14433.7, we might very well correct up to approx 13000 or so over the coming weeks. Not in a straight line of course! I hope I’m wrong on this one!
It’s time to be extremely cautious!
PERFORMANCE REVIEW OF THE HYBRID PORTFOLIO:
Here’s the real-time snapshot of the actual 10 stock model portfolio established based on the DYR Hybrid Strategy. The Hybrid Strategy is the combination of Dual Momentum Monthly Rotational Strategy and Mean Reversion Long/Short strategies applied together.
The resilience of the portfolio is outstanding! The portfolio equity stands at an all-time high at Rs. 22,63,195.72 (18,88,397.15 + 3,74,798.57). Overall, the Hybrid Model Portfolio return stands solid at 58.26% since inception on 30/06/2020.
As you must have observed that the total return of the portfolio has reduced as compared to the previous week. That’s because there’re has been a cash infusion of Rs. 50000 which raised my total investment from 13.8 lakhs to 14.3 lakhs.
The portfolio has been performing well beyond my expectations!
Let’s see where we land up over the next week!
Have a great weekend!
